UAE ramps up cloud‑seeding ahead of cooler season with supercomputer forecasts and 185 missions so far

According to the original Gulf Business report, the United Arab Emirates is sharpening preparations for winter cloud‑seeding operations as the country’s meteorological services expand their forecasting and early‑warning capabilities. Honestly, the aim is to be ready when the weather windows open. H.H. Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) headquarters in Abu Dhabi this month and was shown the centre’s forecasting units, cloud‑seeding systems, marine monitoring operations and renewable‑energy forecasting sections. The visit, reported through the government press service and reproduced by regional outlets, underlined the state’s continued investment in weather science and public preparedness.

The NCM now operates what authorities describe as one of the region’s most advanced supercomputers for high‑precision numerical weather prediction, and has rolled out the “Early Warning for All” platform to deliver real‑time alerts to Emiratis abroad. The centre also uses a public Science Dome to raise climate awareness. According to NCM data cited in press coverage, the UAE has already flown 185 cloud‑seeding missions in 2025, including 39 sorties in July alone, a tempo that officials say demonstrates operational readiness ahead of the cooler season.

Operationally, UAE seeding missions use aircraft that release hygroscopic salt flares — predominantly potassium chloride and sodium chloride — alongside experiments with nanomaterials and electric‑charge emitters to encourage rainfall under suitable conditions. The fleet comprises four dedicated aircraft and a cadre of around 12 specially trained pilots; individual missions can last up to three hours, with pilots circling the base of cumulus clouds and deploying flares when updrafts are detected. The NCM asserts that the materials used are harmless and based on natural salts. The Emirates Weather Enhancement Factory, the region’s first domestic facility to produce high‑quality hygroscopic flares, has been built to support those operations.

Independent and peer‑reviewed work has begun to quantify what the programme contributes to national water security, but it also points to uncertainties and the need for robust verification. A comment in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science applying estimated enhancement ranges to the UAE’s average annual rainfall of 6.7 billion cubic metres concludes that cloud seeding could generate an additional 168–838 million cubic metres of rainfall a year, of which roughly 84–419 million cubic metres might be harvestable. “Rainfall enhancement has historically been overlooked as a key component of sustainability and climate change adaptation strategies,” the npj authors wrote, while also flagging verification challenges. A separate statistical and radar‑based evaluation published in Atmosphere reported an average 23 per cent increase in annual surface rainfall over seeded areas when comparing pre‑seeding and seeded periods, and found consistent short‑term radar signatures of storm enhancement within 15–25 minutes of seeding.

The scale and costs of operations are also emerging more clearly in reporting. National figures indicate more than 60 networked automatic weather stations and an integrated radar network underpin the programme; published accounts put the operating cost at about Dhs29,000 per flight hour and suggest the UAE conducts on the order of 900–1,000 mission hours annually. International media coverage has also noted earlier allocations of up to $20m towards cloud‑seeding research and development and highlighted partnerships with foreign research agencies as the UAE seeks to mature both the science and its governance.

Despite the positive signals, scientists and analysts stress caution. The effectiveness of seeding varies with atmospheric conditions, and published estimates of precipitation increases commonly span a wide range — roughly 5–25 per cent in some summaries — reflecting both natural variability and methodological challenges in attribution. Authors of the Atmosphere evaluation recommended combining physical measurements, radar diagnostics and rigorous statistical controls to reduce uncertainty and to inform policy and practice. Observers also emphasise that weather modification is an augmentation, not a replacement, for longer‑term water strategies such as conservation, reuse and desalination.

For policymakers, the question is one of balance: scaling a technically sophisticated operational programme that can deliver measurable additional water in favourable years, while continuing to invest in verification, environmental monitoring and international scientific collaboration. Government statements present cloud seeding as a core component of the UAE’s broader water‑security toolkit; independent studies and academic commentators, while generally supportive of further development, call for continued transparency on outcomes, standardised verification methods and careful evaluation of cost‑effectiveness relative to other options.

As the cooler months approach, the NCM’s enhanced forecasting systems and an active seeding fleet mean operations are likely to intensify when atmospheric windows open. Officials and researchers alike say the coming season will provide further data to refine techniques, quantify benefits and clarify the role that weather modification can reasonably play in a country that receives relatively limited natural rainfall.

Source: Noah Wire Services